Official 2010 Offseason Thread

FORWARDS

SIGNED
Martin Havlat - 5
Pierre-Marc Bouchard - 4.08(LTIR possibly)
Mikko Koivu - 3.25
Chuck Kobasew - 2.33
Antti Miettinen - 2.33
Andrew Brunette - 2.33
Cal Clutterbuck - 1.4
Kyle Brodziak - 1.15

Houston signed forwards
Colton Gillies - 1.042
Cody Almond - .643
Carson McMillan - .555

RESTRICTED FREE AGENTS
James Sheppard - Qualifying offer puts him at under 900k, but I only see him qualified if they like what they see down the stretch.
Guillaume Latendresse - Russo’s hinted at talks as of late, so I expect a deal to come soon. I don’t know what to predict, if its 2 years I’d say around 2.5 per, if its more than 2 years then it will be over 3M per.
Robbie Earl - Unsure if they will tender him. He would get a 1-way, so they only do it if they think he’s an NHL player. I don’t expect him back, unless he agrees to a 2-way deal.

Prospect RFAs
Morten Madsen - Could be wrong here, his year may have not come off because he played in Europe. Either way, I expect him to remain in Europe, like Voloshenko.
Petr Kalus - He’ll likely be brought back on a 2-way, seeing as how he hasn't played with the Wild or gone to Europe.
Danny Irmen - Believe this is the last time he’d be an RFA. Unsure really, he hasn’t really done anything and at his age it might be time to move on.
Matt Kassian - The 2nd round enforcer is just completing his entry-level deal. I see them keeping him around, seeing how he develops for at least another year or 2, and in case they need an enforcer.


UNRESTRICTED FREE AGENTS
Owen Nolan - Seeing as how he did not get dealt, I expect to see him around. With his age, I’d say a 1 year deal, around 1M.
Derek Boogaard - GMCF has said he’d like an enforcer, and Boogaard is a fan favorite. Though I disagree, I expect him to be back. Just hopefully not for a Colton Orr-like deal(4 yrs 4M). 2-3 years at ~800k would be my guess.
Andrew Ebbett - Depends on Sheppard IMO. If Sheppard plays well, then Ebbett would be looking at a 13th forward spot, which might be the best offer he gets. If Sheppard blows and is not tendered or dealt, Ebbett makes a lot of sense to retain as a 3rd/4th line center with Brodziak. He won’t cost much, ~700k 1 year.

FORWARD OUTLOOK
If Pierre-Marc Bouchard begins the season on LTIR, we’re at 17.79M in the 7 forwards officially signed. Latendresse is obviously going to be a part of the team as well, while with Ebbett/Sheppard we can pencil in one more in the top-12. Assuming Boogaard and Nolan are back as well, that puts us at 11 forwards:

Brunette - Koivu - Miettinen
Latendresse - X - Havlat
Kobasew - Brodziak - Clutterbuck
Boogaard - Sheppard/Ebbett - Nolan
Ebbett may also be the 13th forward(spare), which would push us to 12 forwards in. Boogaard may also be the spare.

As you can see, with my projections, there is 1 spot I don’t account for on returning players, a position the Wild have always been weak - a top-2 line centermen. That is the position which GMCF must find that is not in the organization right now, whether through trade or free agency.

Possible UFA Targets:

Matthew Lombardi - young, fast, improving playmaker. Did score 20 goals a few years ago, but hasn’t since. Minor upgrade on what we had in Belanger IMO, but has a little more upside IMO. He’ll be looking for a Stajan-like deal(4 years 3.5 per).
Olli Jokinen - disappointment since leaving Florida, yet still putting up 50+ points a year. This is a guy who averaged over 4 SOG per game in Florida, and has been around 3 SOG per since. That’s around 100 shots less a year, which may have something to do with the smaller goal totals. He could work out in NY though, but they are cap-strapped. You’d think he’d be older with how long he was in Florida, but at 31 he’s still in his prime.
Tomas Plekanec - Do we have the cap-space? We could probably make enough. Do we want to hand a lot over to a guy having a career year in a contract year? I’m not sure. Tomas played with Havlat in the Olympics, but then again Havlat struggled there. Montreal will be offering him a fair bit and he likes it there, so we’d have to offer a lot to land him IMO(5-6 years at over 5M per, possibly 6M).
Saku Koivu - He’s 35, which means he’d be used in a stop-gap role. You know he’d be interested in joining us and we tried to sign him last year. Sure he’s on the decline, but he has skill, smarts, toughness, and can still put up 50+. I like his fit with Latendresse and Havlat, which is why my money is on him coming to Minnesota. 2-3 years at 2.5-3 per. The other sell is if we want PMB to play center when he returns, Saku could play wing with Brunette and Mikko IMO, pushing Miettinen down.

My list ends there. Don’t see another center I’d consider a #2 that will make it to UFA(IMO).

DEFENSEMEN

SIGNED
Marek Zidlicky - 4
Brent Burns - 3.55
Nick Schultz - 3.5
Cam Barker - 3.08
Greg Zanon - 1.93
Clayton Stoner - .55

Houston signed defensemen
Tyler Cuma - 1
Marco Scandella - .875
Justin Falk - .742
Maxime Noreau - .575

Only RFA is Jamie Frasor, a career AHL’r.
NHL-level UFAs are John Scott(gone IMO), Shane Hnidy(possibly back as #7) and Jamie Sifers(2-way for him to stay).

DEFENSE OUTLOOK
We have 6 d-men signed, so we need a 7th NHL-level d-man. Shane Hnidy or a UFA seems likely:
Zanon - Zidlicky
Barker - Burns
Schultz - Stoner/X
X/Stoner

GOALIES

SIGNED
Niklas Backstrom - 6

RFA
Josh Harding - He’ll get a raise from his 1.1M, but could also be traded. I see 3 teams who could trade for him -> Chicago, San Jose, and St. Louis. Philly is not an option IMO as they have no nice forward prospects, and their NHL young forwards aren’t getting dealt for Harding, while we don‘t need Cobun or Carle on defense, as we have enough money tied up there. Chicago would only be interested if they are willing to buyout/bury Huet, and Harding would be dealt for a forward(Sharp, Versteeg, Ladd, or Byfuglien), with other pieces likely being involved. San Jose could be interested if they run out of cap-space to sign Nabokov, but I’m unsure of the return(Mcginn? Ferriero? Mitchell? Picks?). St. Louis has Chris Mason expiring, don’t know who they’d move but they have promising youngsters(Berglund, Backes, Boyes) who the Wild would love to add, but I don’t know if St. Louis is willing to part with them. Mason could also re-sign there, as he’s not going to get flooded with starting job offers. Use the Lehtonen deal as an expected return. The Stars gave up Vishnevskiy, a former 1st round pick who was developing nicely, along with a 4th.

Anton Khudobin is likely to return, whether it be as the NHL back-up or AHL starter.

Matt Hackett will be turning pro and hold down a spot with the Aeros.

If Harding is moved, expect a goalie to be brought in on a 2-way to give us depth/competition for Khudobin. Don’t expect Brust or Dubie back.


COMPLETE ROSTER OUTLOOK
If Pierre-Marc Bouchard begins the season on LTIR, we’ll be at 41.344 committed in 14 players(and Parrish‘s buyout).
With the following projections:
Guillaume Latendresse - 2 years, 2.5M per
Owen Nolan - 1 year, 1M
James Sheppard - 1 year, 850k(if not him then 13th forward)
Derek Boogaard - 2-3 years, 800k per
Andrew Ebbett - 1 year, 700k
#7 d-man - 1 year, 750k
Josh Harding - 1 year, 1.5M

We’d be at 49.44M committed in 21 players. 7.35M open roster space, but this is excluding Bouchard, who we pretty much will have to set aside ~3M for. So unless we make some moves, Plekanec is not a possibility. Jokinen may not be a possibility. An upgrade on Miettinen is not possible. IMO we’re looking at extending Mikko Koivu, re-signing our own players, signing Saku Koivu(and a #7 d-man) and calling it an offseason. We’re in trouble next offseason though if Bruno walks and we still have Bouchard. Who the fuck are going to be Mikko’s wingers?

tl;dr

Haha, no just kidding.

Very good write-up and summary man. The only error I could spot, would be Chuck Kobasew's cap hit. You have it listed at 2.128, which is indeed his hit this season, but his hit should return back to 2.333 next season, since he will be on the roster the entire season.

I would bring back both Pouliot and Sheppard, because, as you mentioned, losing them wouldn't help us at all. Might as well give them a shot, since they wont cost much. Clutterbuck is a no-brainer.

I think you are dead on for your departures. I think Nolan and Belanger should/will be shopped at the deadline. Sykora could be shopped, but we wont get much. Something is better than nothing however, so he goes as well.

I think targeting Frolov should be at the top, but obviously we wont be the only ones. I doubt Kovalchuk will be realistic for us, and Marleau will likely be extended with his play this season. Savard could be on the market, since Boston is pushed up against the cap somewhat, but I think Boston could manage to squeeze him in with craftiness.

I am also assuming that we bring back Johnsson, because of how good he's been. If we wanted to replace Zidlicky as the powerplay quarterback, Joe Corvo is a possibility, but signing him would dig into our space for forwards. Volchenkov is also out there, and is a great shot-blocker, but we already have Schultz and Zanon, so pass.

Right about Kobasew, I was wondering when I typed that "Who the hell would sign for 2.128M? Updated it on main post.

Frolov should be priority #1 for a couple reasons. #1 is his obvious ability to score, having scored 30 twice. the other one is he is a natural left winger. Havlat plays better on the right side, and Frolov would be an excellent compliment to him. Contract-wise, I think Havlat's contract is a fair comparison for Frolov.

Corvo will be too expensive IMO. In my scenario we will have a young kid on that 3rd pairing, so a PP specialist isn't the ideal partner for him, and the money should be more towards forwards. Looking at the list, if we could get Van Ryn on the cheap given his injury history, he'd be a great fit. Mike Mottau of the Devils could play on a PP#2, Coliacovo, etc. Nothing great, Johnsson or a forward will likely play on the top unit, but Johnny has played there the last couple games.

I am assuming that the following players are moved at the deadline:
Johnsson, Zidlicky, Belanger and Boogaard.

Nolan, Sykora and Hnidy will be allowed to walk for nothing.
Assuming that we re-sign our RFA's and that Scott will be re-signed. I don't think we will be able to ditch Harding. Cuma almost made the team this season, and I think he is a lock for next. Remember, it was a touch decision for management to send him back to his minor team.

That leaves
LW: Brunette, Kobasew, Pouliot
Centers: Koivu, Brodziak, Sheppard, Bouchard
RW: Earl, Clutterbuck, Miettinen, Havlat
D: Burns, Schultz, Zanon

Lines:
? - Koivu - Havlat
Brunette - Bouchard - Miettinen
Kobasew - Brodziak - Clutterbuck
Pouliot - Sheppard - Earl

Burns - Zanon
Schultz - Cuma
Scott - MAB
Sifers

Backstrom - Harding

Couple of points; I still think that Richards is going to push Bouchard into being a center. My assumptions leaves only two real holes and two filler spots. Sifers will fall into the 7th D-man role and I would personally like to see Marc-Andre Bergeron back to QB our PP. He will be cheap and his shot is harder than Zidlicky's.

Assume that Fletcher will go after a left wing finisher, he will have enough free cap space to make a move on either Kovalchuk or Frolov.

Neither one of them will want to sign here.

Fletcher will then have to consider going after a finishing center. That moves things around a bit and limits a few options. D stays the same. Marleau will not want to sign here and he is the most attractive. With Calgary being in a bit of cap trouble, Jokinen is an option, but doubtful he will want to sign either.

Not looking pretty, is it?

If Fletcher can't get a finisher, this team will get younger, and perform the same, which will guarantee a second straight high draft pick. 2010-2011 season will be more of the same and the 2011-2012 season will be worse than it is now.

We aren't Nashville with our depth on D, but that's at least one thing that I have confidence in...

Cuma was sent back to junior before Scandella, and there have been articles about how disappointing he has been. He isn't going to be a top-4 dman next year.

Cuma could be on the team next year, he did miss an entire season of development so its not like he had a whole lot of practice.

What i'm keeping my eye on is Paul Martin, for some strange reason i think he'll seek the open market next year, and hell why not play in your home state?

There is three ways this team can go which is going to influence our next year,

1) we suck and get a top 5 pick with a chance of landing a rookie who can contribute points year 1

2) we do the mid round picks, not getting any instant boost but stocking up for the future.

3) we get the playoffs on guys like Pouliot and Shepp doing better in the 2nd part of the year and with Butch's return. Still late rounds picks but we arn't in such a dire situation

What i think would be the best coarse of action would be to trade guys that are UFA's and have value for picks/prospects, use what we got, to me we cannot let UFA's with value walk, just plain unacceptable.


Our D would look something like this

Burns, Shultz, Zannon with 4 spots open, Sifers could fill a 7th spot, MAB or someone cheap for a Shot, and have 2 spots one for Cuma if he's ready and one for Paul Martin if he's available or another UFA as a top 4.

For Forwards no clue as to where we could go, it all depends on being able to get a sniper for a good deal.

I think Martin is staying with the Devils. He is their defense, like Jay Bouwmeester was the Panthers D. If by some miracle he makes it to the signing period, his asking price will start with what Bouwmeester got last year, 6.6 million cap-hit. A contract like that would considerably hinder the Wild's ability to sign a marque forward free agent like Frolov, unless their plan is for Missthenetagain to remain in the top-6, or Pouliot/Sheppard break out, which isn't going to happen with how Todd Richards is handling them.
Re-signing Johnsson should be priority one during the season here. He plays 22+ a night of consistent defense, excellent break-out passes, and occasionally helps offensively. As good and young as Paul Martin is, its not worth losing Johnsson for the slim chance Martin makes it to UFA. Retaining Johnsson keeps a solid top-4 defense for a reasonable price.

You are probably closer to how Cuma is doing this year in Juniors. I haven't read anything negative out there, though.

I definitely think that Johnsson is gone at the deadline no matter where we are in the standings. I agree that Martin is staying with the Devil's but Johnsson is one major piece that Fletcher can deal and get a lot in return.

*shrugs*

I am more comfortable with our depth at D and the fact that we can pick up some decent UFAs there to fill some holes if necessary.

Forwards, we still suck.

Pipe Dream?
Frolov - Marleau - Havlat
Brunette - Koivu - Bouchard
Kobasew - Brodziak - Clutterbuck
Pouliot - Sheppard - Miettinen

sqare wrote:

You are probably closer to how Cuma is doing this year in Juniors. I haven't read anything negative out there, though.

I definitely think that Johnsson is gone at the deadline no matter where we are in the standings. I agree that Martin is staying with the Devil's but Johnsson is one major piece that Fletcher can deal and get a lot in return.

*shrugs*

I am more comfortable with our depth at D and the fact that we can pick up some decent UFAs there to fill some holes if necessary.

Forwards, we still suck.

Pipe Dream?
Frolov - Marleau - Havlat
Brunette - Koivu - Bouchard
Kobasew - Brodziak - Clutterbuck
Pouliot - Sheppard - Miettinen

I don't know how accurate this blog is, someone posted it over on the hfboards(couple weeks old)
http://ohlprospects.blogspot.com/search/label/Tyler%20Cuma

Quote :

While I wasn't as high on the 67's this season as some other people and analysts were, I have to admit...If you would have told me that the 67's would have the least amount of wins in the league at the 1/4 mark, I would have thought you were crazy. One of the biggest reasons for the struggles of the 67's has definitely been injuries and illness upfront, but also the inability of the defense to keep pucks out of the net. One of the biggest suspects on this end has been Tyler Cuma. Whether it be rust from his knee injury of last season, or pressure from expectations of being an NHL first round pick, Cuma has not played well this season. In the times I've seen him play, he's been trying to do too much on the ice, rather than playing the smart two-way game he was drafted for. If the 67's are going to turn things around, they are going to need the old Tyler Cuma back (well and better goaltending).

That doesn't sound like an NHL-ready d-man right now. Marleau doesn't strike me as a guy who would be interested in joining the Wild. Is there d depth in free agency, sure, but you need a solid top-4, and arguably with the inconsistent play of both Nick Schultz and Brent Burns so far this season, you need an elite d-man in that top-4. They would likely be paired with Zanon, so that pretty much rules out Volchenkov IMO, as he is, like Zanon, a defensive d-man. Hamhuis would be nice, but because of his age there will be quite a bit of interest. Kubina could stay with Atlanta, can't see Buffalo letting both Lydman and Tallinder go, but is the other one really the answer? Johnsson is a good fit. He said he likes it with the Wild. Why get rid of someone willing to stay, that can contribute significantly? The knack has been on letting pending UFAs walking for nothing. If you retain them, you aren't letting them walk. Johnsson should be re-signed.

And on a team that has little to move and some prospects at D, Johnsson is a key asset with assets.

But at the same time you need a solid d moving forward. I'd only be content with Johnsson leaving if one of these 4 things happen:
1. Johnsson says that he doesn't want to return. This would be contradicting himself though, so I don't see it happening.
2. We get blown away with a return. And by blown away I mean either a top-6 forward, or a prospect who instantly gets put as the best prospect the Wild have. A late first for him as a rental to guarantee him leaving when he is interested in staying is not worth it IMO. Elite d-men do not grow on trees. I also wouldn't be interested in a package of mediocre players like Phoenix got from NYR for Morris. It has to be one big asset coming back. Unless theres a GM who appreciates him as much as people like myself do, parting with an asset of this quality is not likely.
3. Brent Burns becomes a great d-man this season. Right now he isn't even a good d-man IMO, but the potential is as high as anyone. If he shows he can be the guy back there, then a complimentary top-4 guy like Tallinder would be an acceptable replacement. I'm not confident this happens this year, and even if it does, I'd still like Johnny back, just I'd be content if they chose to go in a different direction.
4. They can guarantee a signing of Hamhuis or Martin in the offseason, which would be tampering(if they got caught). This is probably the most likely situation(Hamhuis - Zanon is our recruiting tool), but still extremely unlikely.

forthewild wrote:

What i'm keeping my eye on is Paul Martin, for some strange reason i think he'll seek the open market next year, and hell why not play in your home state?

Heard him in an interview with Scott Ferrell a month ago and Scott asked him if he'd ever play in Minny. He said yes but only at the end of his career. FWIW

Damn, first Leopold snubs us now Martin, what the hell.

On Johnnson he may want to stay here but he may be asking for too much, i don't mind having him back, but he needs to be inked before the trade deadline or traded, taking him past the deadline unsigned will only be trouble.

Its hard to accept this but the Wild will suffer for a while, we need to get players developing.

The Wild are not a competitive team, and until they prove they can be, even the home grown stars will baulk at the idea of coming here.

TaLoN wrote:

The Wild are not a competitive team, and until they prove they can be, even the home grown stars will baulk at the idea of coming here.

They will only be getting players who will WANT to come to them(Havlat), good players with questionable hearts, but looking for the big contracts, or players looking for an opportunity(Belanger to an extent) to play a larger role. And to retain their players, they give them albatross contracts(Bouchard and Schultz).

A lottery pick that actually "turns on" the coaching staff at a young age could really help this team(they cannot afford to have another Pouliot scenario), so LETS TANK FOR TAYLOR HALL!!!!!! Shit, we suck anyways, lets just intentionally lose to make sure not only are we in the lottery, but we have the best chance!!!!!!! Give Harding every 3rd game to showcase himself for a trade. Put Pouliot and Sheppard on the ice for 15-18 minutes a night, see if they do anything. Keep Belanger and Nolan for now, if they trade them the team might get a boost .

lolwat wrote:

But at the same time you need a solid d moving forward.

I am not disagreeing with you. I know he wants to stay here, I know he likes it here. His family loves it here.

But hockey is a business. When Fletcher took these reigns, he knew he had so few assets. I don't even think any player is off the table (except maybe Koivu) at this point.

In fact, I think we are in agreement. Johnsson is such an asset that he would immediately help this team via trade. Whatever we get for him would be beneficial for the next season.

Hell, he could pull a Tcachuk and come back as a UFA! That's the ticket. Don't even bother moving the family. Just go via trade, help the team he's on, and have an under the table deal to come back as a UFA for, hell, the same salary he's at now. That would be a HUGE help to the team he loves.

*laughs*

I don't know, to be honest. My prognostication is dim for what Fletcher can pull out in trades.

Ya know what? Ohlund LOVED it here as well but that didnt stop TB from offering him a HUGE UFA contract which he couldnt turn down. Tcachuk type scenarios are VERY rare and very few and far between IMO

cehnehdeh wrote:

Ya know what? Ohlund LOVED it here as well but that didnt stop TB from offering him a HUGE UFA contract which he couldnt turn down. Tcachuk type scenarios are VERY rare and very few and far between IMO

I'd give Johnsson a contract along those lines though. Its basically 5 years then a buyout, but a lower cap-hit than he'd get on a shorter term.

Man it just hit me last night one of Jacks qualities as a coach was not only take a bad team and making them good but making players better then their potential, which means the guys we have may not be as good with out him, this is going to take years to sort out i just hope we give Fletch enough time and don't scape goat him.

lol, knowing how a lot of the Minnesota sports fan are. they will be calling for his head by the Olympic break.

forthewild wrote:

Man it just hit me last night one of Jacks qualities as a coach was not only take a bad team and making them good but making players better then their potential, which means the guys we have may not be as good with out him, this is going to take years to sort out i just hope we give Fletch enough time and don't scape goat him.

How long have many of us said that very thing BEFORE JL left?

TaLoN wrote:

forthewild wrote:

Man it just hit me last night one of Jacks qualities as a coach was not only take a bad team and making them good but making players better then their potential, which means the guys we have may not be as good with out him, this is going to take years to sort out i just hope we give Fletch enough time and don't scape goat him.

How long have many of us said that very thing BEFORE JL left?

Oh i know but i'm just fully realizing it now i'm sort of a slow one, anyhow i'm thinking we'll see a selloff, get some picks/prospects and hope for a top 5 pick.

Made a few changes/updates. Its going to be really hard to figure things out if Burns and/or Bouchard's status is unknown at the end of the year, because that is ALOT of cap-space. Burns more-so because if he's unknown we'll need to get a good #5, something that would hurt our money for forwards.

And my post-deadline update is up. 2 biggest things to watch for down the stretch - Latendresse extension, and the play of James Sheppard.

i agree. i love lats and hope we can keep him around. Shep. the clock has run out. if he is a ufa and walks away, peace out homie.